The Indianapolis Colts are favored by 7 points over the Chicago Bears in Sunday's Super Bowl. They are also the sentimental favorites of virtually everyone outside of Chicago, New England, and Gainesville. It really is a picture perfect storyline - Peyton Manning, star quarterback, perennial also-ran, media darling, finally wins the big game. And it would be a perfect ending too, except for one thing.
The Bears are going to shock the world on Sunday.
There, I said it!
(I don't necessarily think the Bears will win outright. But it will be an exciting game.)
It's rare in a Super Bowl that I'm not actively rooting against one or both teams, as I'm usually recovering from an Eagles loss in the NFC Championship game. Fortunately, the Eagles lost a week early, this year, giving me an extra week to recover. Consequently , I would be probably be happy if either team won. Although, after writing this blog, I'd be happier if the Bears won, since I am kind of going out on a limb by picking them.
It is hard not to root for Colts. Tony Dungy, by all accounts, is a great person. Marvin Harrison, unlike all of his fellow professional athletes, just shuts up and plays. (And he's a Philly guy.) Peyton Manning is long overdue, and it would be kind of pathetic if, just like Dan Marino, he retired as the NFL's the all-time leading passer without winning a Super Bowl. And if that did happen, would it finally make the NFL rethink its philosophy of drafting rocket arm quarterbacks with the number one pick virtually every year? Because those players put up great stats, but almost never win a championship. Which high profile first round quarterbacks have won championships besides Troy Aikman? You pretty much have to go back to Jim Plunkett and Terry Bradshaw. (And don't you dare bring up John Elway - he was simply a passenger on the machine known as the Terrell Davis train. And I've blocked last year out of my memory, so don't mention Roethlisberger either.)
So while I don't mind if the Colts win, I've always liked the Bears too - that 1985 group will always stand out as a mythical team to me; they won the Super Bowl in what was my first season as a true football fan. It was like the rest of the NFL played the Washington Generals to their Harlem Globetrotters. Some of their players, like Jim McMahon and Refrigerator Perry, were like cartoon characters come to life. It's almost a shame that they were my first true exposure to a great football team, as every Super Bowl team since then (with the exception of the '89 49ers, of course) has paled in comparison. But that's a whole other blog.
Let's see, so far, I've praised the '85 Bears and the Colts. I'm sure that Lorenzo and Jessie will be on their way to firebomb my house within minutes of this blog posting.
Here's why I think the Bears will win:
Beware the 13-3 underdog: The Bears finished the regular season 13-3. The Colts finished at 12-4. Yes, the Bears played in a weaker division, and a weaker conference. But it's still 13 and freaking 3, people! Also, the Colts division, the AFC South, isn't exactly the greatest collection of talent. For all of the hype about the competitiveness of the division, none of them besides the Colts had a winning record; this wasn't through any fault of the Colts, who helpfully managed to lose to each of its division rivals once.
Road Warriors: The Bears were 7-1 on the road. The Colts were 4-4 away from the confines of
the Hoosier Dome. Does a neutral site count as an away game?
The Texan factor: The Colts lost to the Houston Texans. How in the hell does a Super Bowl champion do that?!?
Quarterbacks: Peyton Manning is vastly superior to Rex Grossman. Peyton Manning with an injured thumb is vastly superior to Rex Grossman. Peyton Manning with both of his hands cut off at the wrist and running around frantically looking for a tourniquet to stop the bleeding is vastly superior to Rex Grossman. But here's the rub - the Bears don't win because of Rex Grossman. Much of the time, they win despite Rex Grossman. They win because of defense and special teams. Whatever Rex Grossman contributes is icing on the cake - they beat the Saints going away in the NFC Championship game with Grossman contributing only 11 completions. As long as Grossman doesn't actively contribute to the loss by throwing interceptions (admittedly a big if), the defense and special teams will make the big plays needed to keep things interesting.
Stopping the run: Before the postseason started, the Colts were historically bad at stopping the run. Then, when the postseason started, they morphed into the Steel Curtain defense - teams were afraid to run against them….but were they really? No opposing player had more than 13 carries against the Colts for the entire post season. The Colts shut down the Chiefs rushing attack so convincingly that the Chiefs were afraid to run against them for the rest of the game. The Pats and Ravens may have taken the hint, making only half hearted attempts to run the ball. Based on one overpowering half of football against a woefully unprepared team, the Colts may have tricked the Ravens and the Pats into changing their game plans, making them ignore the common sense approach of grinding it out on the ground in favor of shifting to a more pass oriented offensive approach. Neither team really even tried to run against the Colts, whether it was due to fear, or arrogance, or simple bad luck. The Bears, however, do not have this option - they will be forced to run the ball whether they want to or not, and barring an act of utter insanity by the Bears coaching staff, run they will. More than anything, the game depends on the ability of the Bears to run the ball - if the Colts stop them, the Bears will lose.
There you have it. Hopefully the Bears will reward my confidence in them and actually pull this one off, so I can actually keep some semblance of credibility.
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